Good News for Newspapers!

NAA:
Subscriber Churn Down For Newspapers

by Erik
Sass, Yesterday, 5:34 PM

Amid the
generally catastrophic tenor of most news about the newspaper business, one
piece of good news stands out: Subscriber churn has decreased over the last
decade, from 54.5% in 2000 to 31.8% in 2008.

The
decrease in turnover holds out the hope that after losing a large number of
readers to the Internet, print newspaper circulations may stabilize around a
core group of committed readers.

The
findings, released by the Newspaper Association of America in the 2009 edition
of its “Circulation Facts, Figures and Logics” survey, indicate that
“publishers have focused their efforts on retaining subscribers in key
market segments that translate into maximum advertiser value,” according
to NAA President and CEO John Sturm.

This also
translates into stronger circulation revenues, as the average price of
seven-day home delivery rose from $3.37 in 2006 to $3.66 in 2008.

Newspaper
publishers have sought to bolster circulation revenues to offset steep,
continuing declines in advertising revenue. In the first half of 2009, total ad
revenues amounted to just under $13.44 billion, down 43% from $23.48 billion in
the first half of 2006.

The
declining churn rate among subscribers seems to fit with the conventional
wisdom that there is are readers who will stay loyal to print. This is clearly
good news for newspapers, which have seen overall circulations fall steadily
over the last decade.

According
to a MediaPost analysis of figures from the Audit Bureau of Circulations, total
weekday circulation for 100 leading newspapers fell from 29,992,627 in the
six-month period ending March 2003 to 24,596,042 in the six-month period ending
March 2009 — a drop of 18%.

However,
these core print readers consist mostly of older people who have become
accustomed to the print product. As the demographic wave moves forward, this
cohort will naturally shrink, meaning that newspapers still face a continuing
long-term decline in readership — just at a slower pace than over the last
decade.